This is my last formal issue of CSI.

I will continue to post on this blog from time-to-time, so check back here as you like or sign up for e-mail alerts.

At least I am shutting down on a high note. I was up 9.6% in February and am up 20.1% YTD, NASDAQ was up 3.1% and is up 7.2% YTD, the NYSE was up 3.0% and is up 4.6% YTD and the Russell 2000 was down 1.9%.in February and is up 1.3% YTD.

As usual the Magnificent 7 stocks led the way and are up 10.9% YTD while all of NASDAQ is only up 7.2%. These 7 stocks comprise 54% of the value of ALL NASDAQ stocks. Just incredible.

I sold CGNT in February for a tiny gain after waiting two years to get a profit. I also added to one other position and sold a third of another.

We still have $34 trillion national debt, employment is still strong, we are essentially at war in the Ukraine and the Middle East. Housing prices are still unaffordable. Valuations are still sky high despite much higher interest rates. The FED is not going to lower interest rates in the near future. Money losing companies with no profits in sight and company’s whose growth rates have slowed to a crawl are still trading at astronomical multiples of revenues or earnings. PE’s of 25 or 30 are the norm now. These used to be reserved for the very best companies. Beating self-serving analysts estimates, whether or not results are better than last year, is more important than fundamental valuation and relative performance.  The market ALWAYS adjusts, it is just a matter of when. I remain cautious for 2024 and am still looking to reduce my exposure to stocks, but will buy stocks that I think are compelling values like SNCR.

I have not changed my valuation formula as it worked before the 2008 housing bust, after it, and before the 2020 bubble and after it. When the high-flying stocks go down, everything does, whether it makes sense or not. Many times, this is the time to buy, but, not yet of course.

In late 2015 I started offering a paid subscription service which is similar to the Free Blog (2006 to 2015), but I tell you exactly what stocks I bought and why—and sold every day, with a weekly summary of activity, open positions, how many shares I own and their valuations. 91.1% of my closed positions have been profitable. I am no longer offering any subscriptions.

Through February 2024, I have averaged a 41.5% gain on the 80 stocks I have sold (73 winners and 7 losers) in my private portfolio since January 1, 2016. Eighteen of the 80 stocks have had buy-out offers, including two in 2016, six in 2017, two in 2018, none in 2019, two in 2020, four in 2021 and one in 2022. I had one stock subject to a “take-under” offer in 2023, but the offer was withdrawn and one other stock that put themselves up for sale in late 2023.

My seven-figure total portfolio was up 21.7% in 2023, down 15.3% in 2022, up 42.7% in 2021, up 30.6% in 2020 and up 72.8% in 2019. I took most of these gains and banked them in cash (now in CD’s and money market funds).

As a side note, I have invested a bunch of cash in VMFXX (Vanguard fund). It is a guaranteed principal fund that adjusts the payout rate and not your principal. It was yielding 5.2% when I invested in mid-2023 and is now yielding around 5.3%. You can buy and sell at any time, and in my case, there was no commission (purchased through a full-service broker). But some brokers do charge a fee like TD Ameritrade that charges $75 each way. It is a great alternative to CD’s as you can get your money anytime.

I stopped publishing my free weekly CSI Blog after 10 years of publishing at the end of 2015. Since inception of the Blog in 2006, I had 73 winners, 20 losers for a 78.5% win rate with an average gain of 38.9% on the free blog.