Everything was down again in October. I was down 10.0% and am up 2.1% YTD. NASDAQ was down 3.5% and is up 22.8% YTD, the Russell 2000 was down 7.0% and is down 5.6% YTD and the NYSE was down 4.7% and is down 3.3% YTD. I added one new stock position in October.
This market has been brutal since the beginning of August. Interest rates seem to be paused for now, but I am not counting out another hike this year. Employment is still too hot, and while inflation had good results for one month, I am not sure it will not kick up again soon. As I have said, I was not expecting great things from the market this year, and so far, other than the NASDAQ 100, everything else is down.
I have not changed my valuation formula as it worked before the 2008 housing bust, after it, and before the 2020 bubble and after it. When the high-flying stocks go down, everything does, whether it makes sense or not. Many times, this is the time to buy, but, not yet.
In late 2015 I started offering a paid subscription service which is similar to the Free Blog (2006 to 2015), but I tell you exactly what stocks I bought and why—and sold every day, with a weekly summary of activity, open positions, how many shares I own and their valuations. 91.3% of my closed positions have been profitable.
The cost to subscribe is $50 a month for individuals, with a 100 subscriber limit. First-time subscribers can purchase a 3 month subscription for $100. I am not trying to get rich by having thousands of subscribers. I give away almost all of the money I get for subscriptions. I do this for self-discipline in my investing, so I am accountable to someone besides myself which helps keep me focused. I am NOT a trader. I buy my stocks thinking I will own them for 2 years. Many, I own for far less than two years, but, some I have held for five years or more. Including my current open positions, 77.8% of my stocks have been or are profitable.
Through October 2023, I have averaged a 42.9% gain on the 75 stocks I have sold (68 winners and 7 losers) in my private portfolio since January 1, 2016. Eighteen of the 75 stocks have had buy-out offers, including two in 2016, six in 2017, two in 2018, none in 2019, two in 2020, four in 2021 and one in 2022. I have one stock subject to a “take-under” offer so far in 2023 and one that has put themselves up for sale.
My seven-figure total portfolio was up 42.7% in 2021, 30.6% in 2020 and 72.8% in 2019. I took most of these gains and banked them in cash (now in CD’s). In 2022, I lost 15.3% which was less than ½ of the NASDAQ loss of 33.1%.
I stopped publishing my free weekly CSI Blog after 10 years of publishing at the end of 2015. Since inception of the Blog in 2006, I had 73 winners, 20 losers for a 78.5% win rate with an average gain of 38.9% on the free blog.
If you are interested in becoming one of my private paid subscribers, please e-mail me at daveosowski@gmail.com to get all the terms and conditions.
Here is the list of private subscription stocks I have bought and closed out my position on since December 2015.
2023 TORO, 56% gain
2023 ZIMV, 14% gain
2023 QUAD, 64% gain
2023 SRGA 99% loss (biggest $ loss ever)
2023 16% of a Medtech for a 13% gain
2023 ANGI, 51% gain
2023 ARC, 83% gain (including dividends)
2023 OPERA, 104% gain
2022 Sold 12% of Medical device company for a 251% gain
2022 Evofem, 99% loss (spin-off from PDLI)
2022 Symbolic Logic (was Evolving Systems), 3% loss
2022 Hewlett Packard Enterprise, 90% gain
2022 Xerox, 3% gain
2022 Pitney Bowes, 83% gain
2022 Universal Insurance, .02% gain
2022 Western Union, 3% gain
2022 Sonic Foundry, 1% gain
2022 BioDelivery Sciences, 54% gain-Buy-Out offer
2022 Lee Enterprises, 41% gain-Buy-Out offer (yes again)
2021 Lee Enterprises, 115% gain
2021 Leaf Group, 84% gain-Buy-Out
2021 Evolving Systems, 222% gain
2021 DHI Group, 49% gain
2021 Avid Technology, 143% gain
2021 Synacor, 10% loss-Buy-Out
2021 Extreme Networks, 52% gain
2021 Synchronoss, 77% gain
2021 Accuray, 62% gain
2021 Alphatec, 96% gain
2020 ZAGG 43% loss-Buy-Out
2020 Alaska Comm. 46% gain-Buy-Out (again)
2020 MIX Telegraphics, 27% gain
2020 QUAD Graphics, 3% gain
2020 VOXX, 1% gain
2020 Alaska Comm. 46% gain
2020 Cutera, 31% gain
2020 Aviat Networks, sold remaining 1/3 for a 7% gain (overall 15% gain)
2020 DHI .4% gain
2020 QUAD Graphics 54% gain
2020 Medical equipment company-sold 33% for a 61% gain
2019 EXFO, 1% gain
2019 PERI, 77% gain
2019 Quantum Corp, sold for 48% gain
2019 EXTR, 15% gain
2019 DHI Corp, 46% gain
2019 Medical device company, (sold 80%), 69% gain
2019 Lantronix, 41% gain
2019 PDLI, 15% gain
2018 The Rubicon Project 1% gain
2018 Otelco 116% gain.
2018 Global Ship Lease 4% gain, Buy-Out
2018 Telecom Services (57% sold) 3% gain
2018 Lantronix, 52% gain
2018 Ceragon Networks, 82% gain
2018 Aviat Newtowrks. (1/3 sold) 17% gain
2018 Pitney Bowes 31% gain
2018 Calix 1% gain
2018 Xerox 34% gain, Buy-Out
2018 RMG Networks-1% gain
2017 Telecommunications Co., 59% gain (partial sale)
2017 magicJack 17% gain, Buy-Out
2017 eGain 56% gain
2017 YUME 90% gain, Buy-Out
2017 MaxPoint Interactive 60% gain
2017 Shortel 24% gain, Buy-Out
2017 Tremor Video 25% gain
2017 MRV Communications 6% loss, Buy-Out
2017 Ceragon Networks 55% gain
2017 Angie’s List 60% gain, Buy-Out
2017 Lantronix 135% gain
2017 Syneron Medical 46% gain, Buy-Out
2017 RocketFuel 140% gain
2017 Conduent .1% gain
2017 Harmonic 74% gain
2016 Ceragon Networks 48% gain
2016 Alphatec 71% gain
2016 Universal Insurance 36% gain
2016 Mitel Networks 15% gain
2016 Avid Technology 50% gain
2016 Silicon Graphics 70% gain, Buy-Out
2016 Imatron 30% gain
2016 Harmonic 80% gain
2016 United Online 5% loss, Buy-Out